北京33选7Q235CDENGBIANJIAOGANGHUAXUECHENGFEN：  Q235CJIHANC≤0.17% Mn：0.35~0.80 Si≤0.30 S≤0.035 P≤0.035

Q235CDENGBIANJIAOGANGHUAXUECHENGFEN：  Q235CJIHANC≤0.17% Mn：0.35~0.80 Si≤0.30 S≤0.035 P≤0.035

●行情回顾：需求加速下降，钢价大幅下挫；

　　●供给分析：钢厂生产积极，供给压力不减；

　　●需求分析：春节假期临近，需求难有改观；

　　●成本分析：原料冲高回落，成本重心下移；

　　●宏观分析：降准预期升温，资金跨过年关。

　　●综合观点：十二月，国内建筑钢市大幅下挫，主要原因是供强需弱格局形成，前期由供需错配引起的价格反弹基础不再，厂商情绪集体转向悲观；加之年关临近，市场资金压力开始显现，厂商为了回笼资金，有意加快出货速度，最终导致市场价格持续走低；其中，11月份涨幅最大的华南、华东和西南等地跌幅更大，区域价差逐渐恢复正常。目前，北方需求陆续收尾，当地钢厂冬储政策陆续公布后，市场价格趋于平稳；而南方市场需求强度整体减弱，库存逐步向贸易商转移，价格继续下行的空间也不大。1月份即将迎来农历春节，工地施工受到限制，很多贸易商将在中旬陆续休市，因此国内建筑钢价有望在调整之后进入有价无市的状态。基于此，我们对于一月份国内建筑钢行情走势持“需求停滞，价格渐稳”的判断——预计1月份沪市优质品螺纹钢代表规格价格(以指数为基准)，或将在3900-4000元/吨区间运行。

　　download_img("", "http://pic.96369.net/o_1dt34dn5312pmgb53kp1a1l5v09.bmp")

　　行情回顾：12月钢价大幅下挫

　　一、 行情回顾篇

北京33选7　　2019NIAN12YUEFENGUONEIJIANZHUGANGJIADAFUXIADIE，JIEZHI12YUE27RI，GANGCAIZHISHUSHOUZAI3950，JIAOSHANGYUEMOXIADIE390，YUEHUANBIDIEFUWEI8.99%。

　　JUTILAIKAN，JINRUSHIERYUEHOU，QUANGUODUODIQIWENZOUDI，BEIFANGDIQUYINGLAIYUXUETIANQI，GUONEIGANGCAIXUQIUCHENGXIANDUANYASHIXIAJIANG。YUCITONGSHI，YIDUBEIYANWUDEBEIFANGZIYUANJIZHONGDAOGANG，HUADONG、HUANANDENGDIGONGJIYALIZHOURANFANGDA，QIANQIYIN“QUEHUO”DAOZHIDEJIAGEBAOZHANGJICHU“BENGTA”。ZAIGONGQIANGXURUODEXIANZHUANGXIA，GANGCAISHEHUIKUCUNYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG，JIASHANGNIANMOJIANGZHI，ZIJINHUILONGYALIMINGXIANZENGDA，MAOYISHANGQINGXUYEZHUANXIANGBEIGUAN，ZUIZHONGDAOZHIBENYUEGUONEIJIANZHUGANGCAIJIAGEDAFUXIACUO。MUQIAN，GUONEIGEDISHICHANGQUYUJIACHAYIJINGDEDAO“XIUZHENG”。

北京33选7　　GUONEIJIANZHUGANGJIAZAIJINGLI12YUEFENDAFUXIACUOHOU，1YUEFENSHICHANGSHIFOUHAIHUIJIXUXIAXING？DONGCHUJIEDIANHESHIQUEDING？DAIZHEZHUDUOWENTI，YIQILAIKAN1YUEGUONEIJIANZHUGANGCAIXINGQINGFENXIBAOGAO。

　　二、供给分析篇

　　1、国内建筑钢材库存现状分析

　　download_img("", "http://pic.96369.net/o_1dt34eoqd1a0f6moc8qo4u1r3e9.bmp")

北京33选7　　JIANCEKUCUNSHUJUXIANSHI，JIEZHI12YUE26RI，GUONEIZHUYAOGANGCAIPINZHONGKUCUNZONGLIANGWEI780.07WANDUN，JIAO11YUEMOSHANGSHENG16.25WANDUN，ZENGFU2.13%，JIAOQUNIANTONGQIJIANSHAO27.8WANDUN，JIANGFU3.44%。QIZHONGLUOWEN、XIANCAI、REYA、LENGYA、ZHONGBANKUCUNFENBIEWEI317.05WANDUN、98.94WANDUN、167.9WANDUN、102.78WANDUNHE96.4WANDUN。BENYUEGUONEIWUDAGANGCAIPINZHONGZHONGLUOWENGANGJIXIANCAIKUCUNCHUXIANSHANGSHENG，REYA、LENGYA、ZHONGHOUBANZERENGBAOCHIXIAJIANG，BUGUOJIANGFUYOUSUOSHOUZHAI。

北京33选7　　JULEJIE，12YUESHANGXUN，GUONEIJIANCAIKUCUNCHUXIANGUAIDIAN，SUIZHEZHONGDUANXUQIUCHIXUZOURUO，GANGCHANGCHANNENGSHIFANGKUODA，GONGQIUMAODUNTUXIAN，JIANCAIKUCUNLIANXUPANSHENG。SUIRANBUFENDIQUZAIGANGONGQIYINGXIANGXIA，XUQIUSHANGBAOCHIYIDINGRENXING，KUCUNLEIKUSUDUYEJIAOWEIHUANMAN，DANSUIZHEQIWENXIAJIANGYIJICHUNJIEJIAQIDELINJIN，ZHONGDUANXUQIUJIJIANGJINRUTINGZHIZHUANGTAI，ERGANGCHANGPAICHANZEWEICHIZHENGCHANGJIEZOU，JIESHIKUCUNSHUIPINGHUOJIANGJIXUSHANGSHENG。

　　2、国内钢材供给现状分析

　　download_img("", "http://pic.96369.net/o_1dt34fhd6e4ui581fhjerc1gv49.bmp")

　　JUZHONGGUOGANGTIEGONGYEXIEHUITONGJISHUJUXIANSHI，2019NIAN12YUESHANGXUNZHONGDIANGANGQICUGANGRIJUNCHANLIANG196.72WANDUN，XUNHUANBIZENGJIA0.25WANDUN，ZENGZHANG0.13%。JIEZHI2019NIAN12YUESHANGXUNMO，ZHONGDIANGANGTIEQIYEGANGCAIKUCUNLIANGWEI1120.92DUN，XUNHUANBIJIANSHAO60.08WANDUN，XIAJIANG5.09%。

　　JUGUOJIATONGJIJU12YUE16RIGONGBUDESHUJU，11YUEFENWOGUOCUGANG、SHENGTIEHEGANGCAICHANLIANGFENBIEWEI8029WANDUN、6477WANDUNHE10402WANDUN，TONGBIFENBIEZENGZHANG4%、ZENGZHANG2.1%HEZENGZHANG10.4%；RIJUNCHANLIANGFENBIEWEI267.63WANDUN、4215.9WANDUNHE346.73WANDUN，RIJUNHUANBIFENBIEZENGZHANG1.8%、2.1%HE4.7%。

　　3、国内钢材进出口现状分析

　　download_img("", "http://pic.96369.net/o_1dt34g60bu5km2f13tp1p8a1fkr9.bmp")

　　JUHAIGUANZONGSHUZUIXINSHUJUXIANSHI，11YUEJINCHUKOUGANGCAITONGBIJUNHUILUO，JUTILAIKAN：11YUEJINKOUGANGCAI104WANDUN，TONGBILVEJIANG1.4%。GANGTIEBANCAIJINKOU85WANDUN，TONGBIJIANSHAO4.3%。2019NIAN11YUE，WOGUOCHUKOUGANGTIEBANCAI268WANDUN，TONGBIXIAJIANG15.3%；1-11YUELEIJICHUKOU3578WANDUN，TONGBIXIAJIANG3%。11YUE，WOGUOCHUKOUFEIGANG30DUN，TONGBIXIAJIANG88.2%；1-11YUELEIJICHUKOU2706DUN，TONGBIXIAJIANG99.2%。

　　4、下月建筑钢材供给预期

　　YOUYU11YUEFENJIANZHUGANGCAIJIAGENISHIFANDAN，GANGCHANGLIRUNKONGJIANFANGDA，JINRU12YUEFENHOUCHANNENGJIJISHIFANG，SHICHANGGONGJIYALICHIXUSHANGSHENG。BUGUO，SUIZHEHUANBAOZHIWULIDUJIADA，YIJICHUNJIEJIAQILINJINGANGCHANGZHUDONGJIANXIU，DUICHANNENGHUIYOUYIDINGDEZHIYUE。LINGWAI，SUIZHEWOGUOGANGCAICHUKOUSHULIANGDEXIAJIANG，YUJIMINGNIAN1YUEFENGANGCHANGSHIJICHANLIANGBUHUIDAFUZENGZHANG。

　　三、需求形势篇

　　1、沪上建筑钢材销量走势分析

　　download_img("", "http://pic.96369.net/o_1dt34h54b7sqrrs1fd0h7s10pl9.bmp")

　　12YUEFEN，GUONEIGANGSHIXUQIUKUAISUHUILUO。YISHENCHENGWEILI，ZAIGANGONGQILUXUJIESHUHOU，XIAYOUXUQIUNANYIWEICHIGAOWEI，DIEJIAQIWENCHIXUXIAJIANGYIJIYINYUTIANQIZENGDUODENGYINSU，SHICHANGJIAOTOUQIFENRIJIANPIRUAN，BENYUEMEIZHOUXIAOLIANGCHIXUXIADIE。JINRUYIYUEFENHOU，SHOUCHUNJIEJIAQIYINSUYINGXIANGGONGDIJIANGZHUBUQUANMIANTINGGONG，YUJI1YUEFENSHICHANGZHENGTIXUQIUJIAO12YUEFENJIANGJIXUHUILUO。

　　四、成本分析篇

　　1、原材料成本分析

　　download_img("", "http://pic.96369.net/o_1dt34i3bru5q1bq51v31ekb8339.bmp")

北京33选7　　12YUEYUANLIAOJIAGEZHANGDIEHUXIAN，GENJUJIANCESHUJU，JIEZHI12YUE27RI，TANGSHANDIQUPUTANFANGPICHUCHANGJIAGE3320YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOJIAGEXIADIE120YUAN/DUN；JIANGSUDIQUFEIGANGJIAGEWEI2590YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOXIADIE20YUAN/DUN；SHANXIDIQUERJIJIAOTANJIAGEWEI1740YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOJIAGESHANGZHANG100YUAN/DUN；TANGSHANDIQU65-66PINWEIGANJITIEJINGFENJIAGEWEI810YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOSHANGZHANG10YUAN/DUN；PUSHI62%TIEKUANGSHIZHISHUWEI89.7MEIYUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOSHANGZHANG2.45MEIYUAN/DUN。

　　12YUEFENGUONEIGANGPIJIAGEZHENDANGXIADIAO。BENYUESUIZHEXIAYOUCHENGPINCAIJIAGELIANXUXIADIE，GANGPISHICHANGGENFENGHUILUO；CAINUANJIZHONGWURANTIANQIYINGJIXIANGYINGDUIXIAYOUYONGPIXUQIUYINGXIANGMINGXIAN；CHUANTONGXIAOFEIDANJIXIANXIAN，YAGANGQIYEZAIWEILIQINGKUANGXIASHENGCHANJIJIXINGBUGAO。ZAICHENGPINSHICHANGLUXUJINRUDONGCHUDINGJIAJIEDUAN，GANGPIGENGDUOTIXIANWEIPANMIANDONGCHU，YUJI1YUEFENGANGPIJIAGERENGYOUXIAOFUXIADIAOKONGJIAN。

北京33选7　　12YUEFENGUONEIJIAOTANJIAGEZHENGTISHANGXING。BENYUEJIAOTANQIYEJINXINGLESANLUNTIZHANG，SHICHANGYEJIBENLUOSHI。CONGGONGYINGDUANKAN，JIAOQIZHANGJIAHOUSHENGCHANJIJIXINGJIAOGAO，CHUSHANXIYUNCHENGDENGBUFENDIQUHUANBAOYUJINGYAOQIUXIANCHAN，SHANDONGQUCHANNENGBUFAJIAKUAIDENGYINSUYINGXIANGBUFENDIQUJIAOTANGONGYINGWAI，QIYUJIAOQIDUOBAOCHIGAOWEIKAIGONG，FAYUNQINGKUANGZHENGTIJIAOHAO。CONGXUQIUDUANKAN，GANGCHANGKAIGONGLVBAOCHIGAOWEI，BEIFANGBUFENDIQUQIANQISHOUYUXUETIANQIYINGXIANGDAOHUO，JINQIGANGCHANGDAOHUOQINGKUANGZHUBUHAOZHUAN；KAOLVDAOCHUNJIEJIANGZHI，BUFENGANGCHANGRENGYOUBEIKUXUQIU，YUJI1YUEFENJIAOTANJIAGEJIANGGAOWEIPANZHENG。

　　12YUEFENGUONEIFEIGANGJIAGEZHENDANGHUILUO。JINRUSHIERYUEFEN，SUIZHECHENGPINCAIXUQIUDEJIANRUO，FEIGANGXIAXINGYALIZHUJIANZENGQIANG，JIAGECHUXIANYIDINGFUDUDEHUILUO。SUIZHECHUNJIEJIAQIDELINJIN，FEIGANGSHICHANGDONGCHUQIFENJIANGHUIZENGQIANG。ANZHAOWANGNIANQINGKUANG，GANGCHANGWEIQIANGZHANFEIGANGZIYUAN，HOUQIJIANGHUIZHENGXIANGTIJIASHOUHUO。LINGWAI，YOUYUJINNIANCHUNJIESHIJIANJIAOZAO，FEIGANGDONGCHUSHIJIANJINPO，ZAICIQINGKUANGXIA，GANGCHANGFEIGANGCAIGOUJIAGEJIANGYIZHANGNANDIE。YUJI12YUEFENGUONEIFEIGANGSHICHANGZHIDIEFANDAN。

北京33选7　　12YUEFENTIEKUANGSHIJIAGEGAOWEIYUNXING。JINQITIEKUANGSHIGAOWEIZHENDANG，JIXUSHANGXINGKONGJIANYOUXIAN。YIFANGMIAN，GANGCHANGJIEQIANBUKUYUQIYIJINGZAIQIHUOPANMIANDEDAOTIXIAN，CONG11YUEZHONGXUNKAISHI，GANGCHANGSHAOJIEFENKUANGKUCUNCHIXUHUISHENG，YIJINGCHUANG2019NIAN2YUEYILAIDEGAOWEI；LINGYIFANGMIAN，SUIZHEGANGJIACHIXUHUILUO，GANGCHANGLIRUNSHOUSUO，ZHUDONGBEIHUOJIJIXINGBUZAI。ZONGTIERYAN，TIEKUANGSHIJIXUSHANGXINGDEKONGJIANSHOUDAOYAZHI，YUJI1YUEFENGUONEITIEKUANGSHIZOUSHIJIANGYIGAOWEIPANZHENGYUNXING。

北京33选7　　12YUEFENBDIZHISHUDAFUXIAHUA，JIEZHI12YUE27RI，BOLUODEHAIGANSANHUOYUNJIAZHISHU（BDI）SHOUBAO1090DIAN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOXIADIE438DIAN，DIEFU28.66%。12YUE20RI，SHANGHAIHANGYUNJIAOYISUOFABUDEZHONGGUOYANHAI（SANHUO）ZONGHEYUNJIAZHISHUBAOSHOU1235.32DIAN，JIAOSHANGQISHANGZHANG2.9%。12YUE20RI，SHANGHAIHANGYUNJIAOYISUOFABUDEMEITANHUOZHONGYUNJIAZHISHUBAOSHOU1256.63DIAN，JIAOSHANGZHOUSHANGZHANG3.5%。12YUE20RI，YANHAIJINSHUKUANGSHIHUOZHONGYUNJIAZHISHUBAOSHOU1148.51DIAN，JIAOSHANGZHOUSHANGZHANG1.6%。YUJIXIAYUEBDIZHISHUZHENGTIJIANGZHENDANGXIUFU。

　　2、下月建筑钢材成本预期

　　ZONGSHANGSUOSHU，1YUEFENYUANCAILIAOJIAGEHUOJIANGPANZHENGYUNXING：TIEKUANGSHIXUQIUHUILUO，JIAGESHANGXINGKONGJIANYOUXIAN；JIAOTANSANLUNTIZHANGLUOSHI，JIAGEJIANGGAOWEIPANZHENG；FEIGANGDONGCHUXUQIUSHANGSHENG，JIAGEHUOZHIDIEFANDAN。ZONGTILAIKAN，YUJIXIAYUEJIANZHUGANGCAISHENGCHANCHENGBENNANYIXIAYI，TEBIESHIDIANLUGANG，BUFENDIQUGANGCHANGYINGLIKONGJIANBUFUCUNZAI。

　　五、宏观信息篇

　　1、 工信部部署2020年七大任务：确保工业经济运行在合理区间

北京33选7　　QUANGUOGONGYEHEXINXIHUAGONGZUOHUIYI23RIZAIBEIJINGZHAOKAI。HUIYIBUSHU2020NIANQUANXITONGQIXIANGZHONGDIANRENWU，TICHUQUEBAOGONGYEJINGJIYUNXINGZAIHELIQUJIAN。HUIYIZHICHU，2019NIAN，QUANXITONGJIAOHAODIWANCHENGQUANNIANMUBIAORENWU。YUJIQUANNIAN，QUANGUOGUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHIZENGZHANG5.6%ZUOYOU，RUANJIANHEXINXIJISHUFUWUYESHOURUZENGZHANG15%，DIANXINYEWUZONGLIANG(SHANGNIANBUBIANJIA)ZENGZHANG20%，HULIANWANGXINGYESHOURUZENGZHANG20%。

　　2、2020年交通运输将完成铁路投资8000亿元 公路水路投资1.8万亿元

北京33选7　　12YUE26RIZHAOKAIDE2020QUANGUOJIAOTONGYUNSHUGONGZUOHUISHANGCHUANCHUDEXIAOXICHENG，MINGNIANJIAOTONGYUNSHUJIANGWANCHENGTIELUTOUZI8000YIYUAN，GONGLUSHUILUTOUZI1.8WANYIYUAN，MINHANGTOUZI900YIYUAN。ZAI2019NIANSHIXIANJUBEITIAOJIANDEXIANGZHENHEJIANZHICUNTONGYINGHUALUJICHUSHANG，2020NIANSHIXIANJUBEITIAOJIANDEXIANGZHENHEJIANZHICUNTONGKECHE。JIZHUANGXIANGTIESHUILIANYUNLIANGZENGZHANG12%YISHANG。XIANGZHENKUAIDIWANGDIANFUGAILVDADAO98%。QUANMIANWANCHENG“SHISANWU”GUIHUAGEXIANGMUBIAORENWU。